Source: granary of the wor∞₩ld
With China's social and economic rapid deve✘↑¶lopment, with soybean as the mai ↑$n representative of the rapid growth o®←f oil demand for agricultu®≥λ€ral products, but no correspo✘∞✘nding increase in domes•λ♥tic production, lead≥→ to its dependence on imported more☆™ and more high, and the main years §±↔ago has become a global soyγ☆€₽bean importer, China'→Ωs soybean imports up to 95.54 mil♦'lion tons in 2017, mainly to BrΩ azil and the United States impor$≥←ts of soybeans, soybean imports fr©✔om Brazil is as high as 50.93 million tons, accouφ>nted for 53%, 32.85 milli on tons of imports fro↑φ£m the United States, proportion reached 34%. Me±↔¶£anwhile, China is also tδ≠''he largest destination country for us soy£β bean exports. According to the us department ≥'of agriculture (USDAσ♥ε), the us exported 53 million tons of soybe↔ ans in 2017, of which more thanγ€ half were exported to€β♣< China.
Early in 2018, the market had hoped♣÷₽Ω for further growth in Chinese demand§λ←σ, after the industry had expected annual impo↓φ✘₹rts to top 100 million tons, w×πhich would boost U.S. soybean exports. Unexpe↑<<→ctedly, the plan failed to c™≤Ωatch up with the change, and a "bla✔πck swan" event involving Chinese dema ×≤₽nd appeared in the us bean market -- the ou★₹tbreak of trade war between China±€ and the us. As we all know, the emerεβ✘gence and existence of trade war between Chiσ♣∑na and the United States h$♥as a far-reaching impact, which c♥'πhanges the global economic develo♦×★pment situation and affects the ↓•agricultural market, espeπ↕∑cially soybeans. In fa§←♥ ct, it's a realignment✔ of global soybean trade order, because du♠☆♠ring China's tariffs on imports of U.S. soyb¥≤ean 25%, causing the buyε±er to increase the intensity of S±•outh American soybean procurement, this dirδΩ←ectly push up South American soybean liter↓≠₹® discount, other countries and to give↑™♦ up, and the price is the beauty of Sout÷ αh American soybean to purchase™ cheaper, at the same time also enco£↕urage China to actively ex★☆÷pand new soy source of imports, su✘✔•ch as Russia, asean €δfree trade area, etc. In adσ×↓±dition, it brought to an abrupt end years ♣©÷₽of soybean import growth and a∏' long time decline. According to Chinλ§ese customs data, China imported 82.±¶↑±3 million tons of soybeans from January to ¶±November 2018, down ✔₹from 85.99 million tons in the same perio↓☆d last year. This has also led Chinese authorit∏σies to promote the use of low-pro§♠tein diets in pig, broil and ★±♦≥layer farming in order to effectively ₩< reduce the use of s₽↔☆>oybean meal, and to import largγ e quantities of Ukrainian sunf♠₹lower meal, Canadian meal and other miscellan♣✘♥®eous meal to replace soybean meal ÷γ₹while lifting the import restrictions of I≈α•ndian vegetable meal. Is δ↑after a trade war with China lead to weakening Ω☆★₩demand in China, speculative funds also ™in CBOT soybean futures options o≠→↔βpen market as "empty", under this backgrou₽•nd, the cheese makers are owned by C≈↕BOT soybean futures drop ✘$∞gradually since the early years march high mark f≠$or the support level and below 10<>♦∑00 cents, including 3 months mini$¥mum has tested to 839.75 cents, its earlσσy march high more than 21.6%.
Attached 1: map of beautiful bean★∑©₽s
Up to early December 201απε8, the G20 leaders the 13th summit held in A™± rgentina smoothly as schε↕eduled, the two heads of state of China aφγnd the United States afte§₽r more than a year and will pay an ofε'€®ficial since the trade ★ war and reached impor✔₽tant consensus, which decided to suspend th∑↔ e escalating trade war on January 1, 2019, in©↔>cluding no longer improve ex∏'φ☆isting tariff rates againstδ< each other, and no other goods new tariffsα÷ measures, the Chinese side agreed $to immediately start to buy from the United Sta€σtes has not been agreed but ''very large agriculture, energy, indust☆∑©rial, and other products. The two heads of st><ate also instructed the economi>'$c and trade teams of the two sides to step u®₹p consultations and reach an agree♣©§ ment in the next three months to ca¶∞ncel the tariffs imposed this year so as ×∞♦to bring bilateral economic and trade relaβ₹tions back to the normal ♠♠↔×track as soon as possibl →e and achieve win-win resultsα★. A truce, China and the United Stat™≤£es soon after signs of progress in China ✔↕and the United States trade negotiat∞☆ions, such as on December 12, China to buy six m€♦onths of the first bat☆×∑πch of U.S. soybeans is impor&α tant evidence, CBOT ≈δsoybean futures contract in March in↓→ China demand helped again rose to 900 cent↔¶"s above, highest once rebou€✘ nded to 941 cents, up more than 10.8✔→% than the previous low of λ÷♥839.75 cents. Just, time shift thing✔£&εs easy, as the Chinese and U.S. officials hav$σe released by China purchasing U.S. soybean♠₩β quantity lower than previ'δ₹ous market expectations, the marδε§<ket under the condition ♦>♥'that the number is diε★fficult to help digest beauty bean big ending inv₩ ®entory, superposition ©Ω→of South American soybean listed high pressur₽≤e looming, as such, CBOT soybea©↔n futures dropped back a™∏Ωδgain mid to late December after a brief r$λebound and below 900 cents a share, as of la✘te March 31 December contract closed at 895 centβ₩s, high rebound from the 941 ce $nts down 5%.
Looking forward to the future, china-us ≥•♥≈trade negotiations on the new tren♣♦₹d of the us price trend is still very critical. Tλ₩π↑he U.S. government will send a delεγ∑egation to Beijing for trade talks with C ©λhinese officials the week of Jan. 7, according to☆≠σ people familiar with the matter. ↕€∑It will be the first time the two sides hφ™Ωave held face-to-face talks since t'≥he two presidents reached a tγ↔emporary truce in Argentina in early₩€π↑ December. If a trade war with China if all↕↕ goes well, the beauti§₩€βful bean futures is still expectedδ¶ to moderate rebound, but the current global soy₩ bean supply abundant and A∑÷frican swine fever spread under •ε China weakening dema≤♠♣nd or affect its late soybean×∑ demand, in this context, •↕ unless South America suffered serious ↔★adverse weather crops ha©&"rvested, otherwise the bean is expect↑φ ed to rebound in prices spaceσγΩ is limited, pressure level near 1000 £♣cents mark will be the Ωλ¶φimportant resistance "×₹level.
